Livestock decision time

By Brian Ashton, Senior Livestock Consultant, Rural Solutions SA, Pt Lincoln


The season has deteriorated in most areas of the state after a good start to the year. While there is still a chance of late rains in some areas, it is a great concern what will happen with the sheep and cattle industries as a result of the consecutive poor spring.

Last summer most people elected to keep most of their breeding stock.  Where necessary to prevent erosion, they locked stock into containment areas. They did a really good job of it - keeping their sheep in good condition and protecting the country at the same time. 

Brian Ashton, of Rural Solutions SA, Port Lincoln, conducted a survey of people who locked sheep up and the results were outstanding.  Average death rate in the feedlots was only 1.2% - probably less than if the sheep were left in the paddock.  Farmers learnt a lot about stock management and nutrition in dry times.

Unfortunately, with the current season, some people are thinking they could have sold the stock and bought them back for no more money - and saved a lot of work and worry.

Now many people are saying they will not keep their stock this time.  This year they don’t have the hay on hand, barley is now $400 a t, and they just don’t want to do it again. People are very tired and frustrated.

The problem is that if most people decide to sell their stock it could have a massive depressing impact on stock prices and the recovery could take years because stock numbers will be so low.

To sell now, or to hold on and feed, is a really difficult decision for producers.  It could be the most important livestock management decision they make in their lifetime.

People need to sit down around the kitchen table with their family and partners and make plans. Once they’ve made the plans they should get someone they can trust to be honest to review the plan and make suggestions.

They need to ask themselves;

· How much feed do we have – in the paddock and in the shed?
· How much feed do we need to get our stock through?
· How much feed can we afford to buy?
· Can we use existing paddock feed better eg. by use of electric fencing or improved watering?

 
When considering which stock to sell, and which to keep, work out;

· The value of the stock now
· How much they will earn by this time next year?
· How much it will cost to feed them through?
· How much they will be worth this time next year?

Some of the figures will be a guess, so work out a range of possibilities. Don’t use the worst case, or best case, scenarios but the most likely.

Watch what everyone else is doing as this affects future prices. Do the sums first and then use your “gut feel”. Once you have made this difficult decision don’t look back. You made the best decision at the time.

September 2007